Which Playoff Matchup Is the Most Captivating?
Ranking the interest level for all eight NBA playoff matchups
With the last seeding games of the NBA bubble tipping off today, that means one thing: playoff basketball is around the corner. The matchups in the Eastern and Western conferences have all but been set (besides the play-in game for the West’s eighth seed). So which matchup could provide the most compelling series? Below, I will rank each series based on how interesting of a matchup it could be. For this I am assuming the Trail Blazers will defeat the Grizzlies in the play-in game. Portland is streaking (6–2 in the bubble), whereas Memphis is struggling without Jaren Jackson Jr. (2–6). The Blazers in all likelihood will secure the final playoff position. So let’s get this started.
8. Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have been a bit of a surprise in the bubble. They finished their eight seeding games with a record of 5–3. They even upset the Bucks (however Giannis and Khris Middleton did not play in the second half). Brooklyn has found a way to win while missing many of their top players. Caris LeVert has even shown flashes of becoming a star. This feel good story however is about to come to an end. The Raptors were one of the best teams before the stoppage. They also didn’t miss a beat when the season resumed. Toronto has a 6–1 record in the bubble, including a win over the Lakers. The Raptors may be the best defensive team in the league as well. They have the second best defensive rating in the NBA. They also allow the fewest points per game, while holding opponents to the lowest three-point percentage. Brooklyn has shocked some since the restart; but Toronto should win this series handily.
Prediction: Raptors 4–0
7. Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
This matchup would’ve came in at number eight if it weren’t for Milwaukee faltering in the bubble. Since the restart, the Bucks have appeared to be off. They finished their seeding games with a less than stellar 3–5 record, ironically the same record as the Magic. Despite Milwaukee’s struggles, they should still win this series in no time. The Bucks were the most dominant team before the stoppage. They averaged the most points per game, while also having the league’s best defensive rating. The Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo as well. The probable MVP should be able to handle an Orlando team that is missing Jonathan Isaac. The Magic just don’t have the needed firepower to compete with the Bucks. Giannis and Milwaukee should roll, even with their bubble struggles.
Prediction: Bucks 4–0
6. Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are a fun, up and coming team. Luka Doncic appears to be a future league MVP. The Slovenian is averaging a triple-double since the NBA’s restart. Kristaps Porzingis is a dominating big when he’s on. Dallas however, can’t close out games. They have struggled to win close games, going 13–20 in clutch games as of March. That means whenever a game is within five points during the final five minutes. On top of not being able to close out games, Dallas also must face the juggernaut which is the Clippers. Many consider the Clippers the favorite for the championship this year. Not to mention Los Angeles went 3–0 against Dallas this season. Yes the Mavericks can score a lot of points (3rd most per game). The Clippers however, can also put up points (4th most per game). The disparity comes on the defensive side of the ball. LA has the fifth-best defensive rating, whereas Dallas has the 18th best. Doncic and the Mavs may be able to pull off one win, but not many more.
Prediction: Clippers 4–1
5. Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz
Michael Porter Jr. has given Denver a new element for the upcoming playoffs. The former number one recruit has returned to his dominant high school form. In six games in the bubble, he’s averaging 23.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game. The “rookie” has found new play time with players like Gary Harris and Jamal Murray missing games. Now with everyone back and healthy, Denver could be a serious problem. Nikola Jokic is a star. Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are great complimentary pieces. Now add on a Michael Porter Jr. who’s in dominant form, along with rookie Bol Bol, and you have a team that will give Utah fits. The Jazz on the other hand are without their second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic. They’re also dealing with the rift between Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The chemistry issues on Utah’s roster could cause them to falter in the playoffs, thus giving Denver the upper hand.
Prediction: Nuggets 4–2
4. Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
This series is all about the beef between Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren. After that however, it’s pretty clear Miami’s the better team. The Heat are 3–0 against the Pacers this year, including a win in the bubble. T.J. Warren had been on fire since the restart. That was until he faced Jimmy Butler, who held him to just 12 points on 5–14 shooting. Now with news coming out that Warren is dealing with plantar fasciitis, Indiana’s chances only dwindle. The Pacers still have Victor Oladipo though. If he can play up to an all-star level, Indiana should be able to steal some games. In the end however, Jimmy Butler and the league’s top three-point shooting team (38.1%) should advance.
Prediction: Heat 4–2
3. Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia managed to win the season series 3–1 against Boston. All signs however, point to the Celtics advancing in this matchup. First, the 76ers will be without All-Star Ben Simmons. Second, all the statistics point to Boston being the better team. The Celtics average more points per game than the 76ers. They also have a higher defensive rating, while allowing fewer points per game than Philadelphia. The 76ers best hope is to have Joel Embiid play out of this world. The Philadelphia big man will have to average close to 30 points and 15 rebounds if the Sixers have a chance at advancing. If not, Jayson Tatum and crew will be moving on to the second round.
Prediction: Celtics 4–2
2. Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Could the eight seed Trail Blazers really give the Lakers issues? Well given what we’ve seen in the bubble so far, yes. The records in the seeding games don’t mean much on LA’s end because they basically had the one seed locked up. The real issue for the Lakers has been their inability to defend guards. When Avery Bradley opted out, it left a void on the Lakers’ roster. Since then, players like James Harden, Kyle Lowry, and Chris Paul have been able to dominate against Los Angeles. Now here comes a man on fire in Damian Lillard. Lillard should be able to will a now healthy Blazers team to a couple of wins over LA. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, the Lakers are still clearly the favorite. For as good as Lillard has been offensively, Portland as a team has been a defensive liability. They allow the fifth-most points per game this season, along with having the fourth-worst defensive rating. Lebron and Anthony Davis should be able to advance, despite being given a scare in a couple games.
Prediction: Lakers 4–2
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
After an offseason trade saw the Thunder and Rockets swap point guards, I don’t think many imagined the two teams meeting in the playoffs. Well here we are. OKC vs. Houston has the makings of a long, and interesting series. Many would assume the Rockets are the better team. Oklahoma City however leads the season series 2–1. Now there’s word that Russell Westbrook will miss at least a few games in Houston’s first series. Could the Thunder actually be the favorite? The two teams couldn’t be much more opposite. Houston is one of the top scoring teams (2nd in points per game), whereas OKC is slightly below average (20th in points per game). The Rockets also love to shoot threes (most threes made per game), while the Thunder make the fourth-fewest threes per game. Oklahoma City on the other hand prefers to slow the game down and play defense. They allow the sixth-fewest points per game, while Houston allows the ninth-most. The differences between these teams should make for a great series. Russell Westbrook’s injury is the key factor. If he misses more than two games, Oklahoma City will move on.
Prediction: Thunder 4–3
