Super Bowl LV Preview
Which team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this Sunday?
After speculation on whether or not there would even be an NFL season, we find ourselves just two days away from Super Bowl Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to repeat as champions, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be hosting the first “home” Super Bowl. The matchup couldn’t be much better. We get to see the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady face off against the brightest young star and future G.O.A.T. candidate Patrick Mahomes.
But whose team will have the edge on Sunday?
Let’s start with the Kansas City Chiefs. KC was magical this season. They only lost one game in which Patrick Mahomes played (most starters sat in the week 17 loss to the Chargers). Their offense was dominant as usual. The team finished in the top-six in total yards per game (most), passing yards per game (most), and points per game (sixth-most). This can be attributed to three key players: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. Mahomes was outstanding all season, and will likely finish second in the MVP voting. The superstar quarterback threw for 4,740 yards (second-most) and 38 touchdowns (fourth-most) in 15 games. Mahomes also made sure to focus on turnovers, considering he threw just six interceptions all year.
As for Mahomes’ passing weapons, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill were both special throughout the season. They both finished in the top-eight in receiving yards (Kelce second-most (1,416), Hill eighth-most (1,276)), and receiving touchdowns (Kelce fifth-most (11), Hill second-most (15)) even while sitting out of the week 17 game.
The offensive explosion during the regular season hasn’t slowed down come playoff time for Kansas City either. The Chiefs are actually averaging more total yards per game, more passing yards per game, more rushing yards per game, and more points per game than they did during the regular season. And this is with Mahomes missing a quarter and a half. KC has only stepped up their games. The 25 year old QB has 580 yards, five total touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two postseason games. Meanwhile Kelce (third-most) and Hill (second-most) are both in the top-three in postseason receiving yards.
Now offense is always the focus for Kansas City, but their defense is no joke either. The Chiefs defense allowed the tenth-fewest points per game, while forcing the tenth-most turnovers. Their impressive play as a unit has continued into the playoffs as well. KC is allowing fewer total yards per game, and fewer points per game than the regular season. They have also forced two turnovers in two playoff games so far.
The Chiefs as a whole appear to be clicking, but let’s not forget about Tampa Bay.
The Tom Brady experience has worked perfectly for the Bucs. Tampa finished in the top-seven in total yards per game (seventh-most), passing yards per game (second-most), and points per game (third-most). Brady doesn’t seem to ever be going away either. Despite being 43 years old, the Tampa Bay QB still was able to throw for 4,633 yards (third-most) and 40 touchdowns (second-most). Brady did throw the sixth-most interceptions (12) this season; but a 40 to 12 ratio won’t bring too many complaints.
Despite joining a new team with a limited offseason, Brady was able to make it work. He spread the ball around on offense, leading to four Tampa Bay receivers finishing with more than 500 yards (not to mention Antonio Brown finishing with 483 in eight games played). Mike Evans finished with 1,006 yards, while Chris Godwin (840) would have surely passed the 1,000 yard mark had he not missed four games.
The Buccaneers offense hasn’t necessarily taken it to another level in the postseason like Kansas City’s. That doesn’t mean they’re underperforming though. They’re just keeping about the same pace as before. Tampa is averaging more total yards per game than the regular season. They however, are averaging slightly less passing yards per game, and slightly less points per game than they did during the regular season. Brady has had some good and bad moments so far. The QB leads the postseason in passing yards (860) and passing touchdowns (7). He also is second in interceptions thrown (3), and would surely be first if it wasn’t for the debacle Ben Roethlisberger had.
Despite the ups and downs Tampa is still here. A big reason for that is their defense. During the regular season the Bucs finished in the top-eight in total yards allowed per game (sixth-fewest), rushing yards allowed per game (fewest), and points allowed per game (eight-fewest). The unit was tied for the fifth-most turnovers forced, and excelled at rushing the passer (seventh-most sacks).
While Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing slightly more total yards per game, rushing yards per game, and points per game, they step up when it counts. They’ve forced the most turnovers this postseason (5), while their pass rushers have continued to perform.
This leads us to the first of two key matchups for the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay’s pass rush against Kansas City’s offensive line. The Chiefs will be without their two starting tackles on Sunday, which is never a good sign when facing a team which has three players who recorded at least eight sacks during the regular season (Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaq Barrett, Devin White). Not to mention both Barrett and Pierre-Paul are in the top-four in postseason sacks this year.
The problem for Tampa is that might not matter. The most times Patrick Mahomes has been sacked in a game this season is four, which happened twice. Kansas City won both of those games (43–16 against Denver, 32–29 against New Orleans). But let’s say sacks alone won’t be the only issue. Sacks and pressure typically lead to turnovers. Mahomes however, doesn’t frequently turn the ball over, and in the one game he did it didn’t matter. Miami sacked Mahomes three times, forced three interceptions, forced two fumbles (one recovered), and they still allowed 33 points and lost.
This Chiefs offense is just different. They’re so explosive and dangerous which leads to the second key matchup. Can the Bucs slow down Tyreek Hill. In the first matchup which Kansas City won 27–24, Hill shined. The star receiver had seven catches for 203 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter, before finishing with 13 grabs for 269 yards and three touchdowns.
Tampa simply couldn’t stop Hill. Will things be different the second time around?
It doesn’t appear so. The weakness of the Buccaneers all season has been their pass defense. They allowed the twelfth-most passing yards per game (246.6) during the regular season. That number has since risen to 264.3 passing yards allowed per game during the postseason. Not a good sign for the rematch against Hill. And even if Tampa does go all out at stopping Hill, Travis Kelce still exists. Not to mention it appears Sammy Watkins has a chance to play on Sunday.
Even with the loss of their two tackles, it appears Kansas City will still be too much for Tampa Bay. The 27–24 score of the first matchup is a bit misleading considering KC was up 17 entering the fourth quarter. This time around Mahomes and company won’t let their foot off the gas. Expect a Chiefs victory by at least 10. A new dynasty has arrived.
