Incoming Thunderstorm?
Whoever has to face OKC in the first round could be in for a rude awakening
Not many stories have been more shocking in the NBA this season than the success of the Oklahoma City Thunder. With a 36–22 record, OKC currently sits as the 6th seed in the west. The Thunder however, are only 4 games back of the number 2 seed. At the start of the season no one could have saw this coming. Vegas had OKC’s over/under win total at 31 games, which was the 8th fewest in the NBA. Many believed the Thunder were heading for a rebuild after trading away Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Internally though, OKC knew they were just reloading. The acquisitions of talented veterans Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari, along with rising star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have made the Thunder a team no one should want to face in the playoffs. Yet many people still aren’t fully aware of how dangerous this Thunder team truly is. Many brush OKC off as just a good story, a team which can’t really compete come playoff time. That’s just the kind of thinking which could lead to a first round upset.
This Thunder team has all the tools to complete a first round upset during the playoffs. Chris Paul has been a leader for OKC all season, and that will continue into the playoffs. Paul has played in 102 playoff games throughout his 14 year career. That veteran leadership will be crucial once OKC finds themselves in a playoff matchup. The Thunder are also one of the best teams in the clutch (games which feature a score within five points in the last five minutes of regulation). They have a league-best plus-27.3 net rating, a league high 25 wins, and a league-best 123.5 points per 100 possessions all in clutch-time. OKC is used to playing in close games (and often winning those games). That experience will help the Thunder during tightly contested playoff matchups.
Along with leading the league in a multitude of clutch statistics, OKC also has another weapon which they can deploy at the end of games. The best lineup in the entire NBA. I know you’re probably thinking that would belong to a team like the Bucks or Lakers, but actually it’s OKC which has the best lineup in terms of net rating. Oklahoma City’s preferred closing lineup of Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Shroder, Danilo Gallinari, and Steven Adams has a plus-30.2 rating per 100 in 159 minutes. This is the best lineup throughout the league with a minimum of 150 minutes played. The three-guard lineup has caused teams problems all season, thus leading to OKC garnering a huge amount of success whenever that lineup is on the floor. If head coach Billy Donovan deploys those five even more during the playoffs, then expect for the opponent to be in some serious trouble.
Oklahoma City has clutch stats, and the best lineup based on net rating, but they can still offer something which will make them a tough out come playoff time: free throw shooting. OKC currently ranks fourth in the NBA in free throw percentage at 80.5%. They also rank second in clutch free throw percentage at 87.9%. The Thunder are not going to simply give the game away by missing late game free throws. If a team wants to beat the Thunder, they are going to have to go into Oklahoma City and earn it.
While going on the road in the NBA is a challenging objective, the Thunder have shown an ability to go into another teams building and win. OKC is currently on an nine game road winning streak, and have the fifth-fewest road losses (10) in the NBA.
So teams can sleep on OKC for as long as they want, but the Thunder have the makings of a team which can cause real problems once the playoffs start. With clutch stats, a dangerous lineup, an ability to make free throws, and the ability to win away from home, there’s a real possibility the Thunder could be moving on to the second round or even the conference finals.
