Can Indianapolis Upset the Bills?
All eyes are on Buffalo in the first playoff matchup of the weekend
The NFL playoffs are set to get underway today; and what better way to start the postseason than with a matchup between the Bills and Colts. Buffalo is coming off an extremely impressive season. The Bills are the two seed in the AFC, finishing with a record of 13–3. Josh Allen has made a leap in his third professional season. The former Wyoming quarterback finished fifth in passing yards (4,544), and fifth in touchdown passes (37). He also added in 421 yards and eight touchdowns rushing.
Perhaps the biggest reason for Allen’s success this year was the acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs led the league in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535). He also finished with eight receiving touchdowns.
Now all the expectations are on a Bills team which is entering the playoffs on a six game win streak. The Colts however, are no pushover.
Despite being the seventh seed, Indianapolis finished the season with an 11–5 record. They have wins over the Packers and Titans, and could prove to be a tough out for Buffalo.
Indy has a certain way they want to play football. They’re going to try to beat you running the ball and playing defense. For the most part, it’s been working.
Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor finished the season on a tear. He’s only had less than 75 yards rushing once in his last six games (74 against Pittsburgh). However, he’s had at least four games with 90 yards or better, including a 150 yard performance, and a 253 yard performance in the last game of the season. This effort down the stretch helped Taylor finish with the third most rushing yards in the NFL. The rookie also finished tied for seventh in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns.
If Taylor’s hot streak continues, then it’s on the Colts’ defense to do what they’ve been doing. Led by All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard, and star pass rusher DeForest Buckner, Indy’s defense ranks in the top ten in total yards allowed per game (eighth-fewest), rushing yards allowed per game (second-fewest), and points allowed per game (tenth-fewest). The team has also forced the fifth-most turnovers this season.
Now in a perfect world for Indianapolis, the game would consist of a heavy dose of Taylor paired with dominating defense. However, it may actually end up coming down to the quarterback matchup.
Josh Allen and the Bills offense may prove to be just too much for Indy’s defense. I mean after all, Buffalo ranks in the top three in total yards per game (second-most), passing yards per game (third-most), and points per game (second-most). Despite those gaudy numbers, I believe the Colts will be able to slow Allen down just a little. The main reason being expectations.
All the pressure is on Allen and the Bills. They’re a touchdown favorite, playing at home in front of fans for the first time all season. If the nerves get to Allen, who’s playing in just his second playoff game, Indianapolis’ defense will pounce, leaving the door open for Philip Rivers.
Now Rivers hasn’t been special this season, but he also hasn’t been bad. The 39 year old finished with 4,169 yards (tenth-most), and 24 touchdowns. Rivers also won’t be rattled considering he has plenty of postseason experience. Buffalo’s defense likely won’t present many challenges for Rivers either. The Bills have been average on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 16th in points allowed, and 14th in total yards allowed per game.
Now I’m not saying Indianapolis is necessarily going to upset Buffalo. The Bills will probably still end up winning this game. I however, won’t be surprised if the Colts end up advancing. Either way, expect the matchup to be much, much closer than Bills fans would enjoy.
